Russell's
first hope was that the South would forgo secession; his second, this
accomplished, that there would be no war, and in this sense he
instructed Lyons. The latter, less expectant of peaceful separation, and
more aware of the latent power of the North, maintained throughout his
entire service at Washington that there was at least a _chance_ that the
North could subdue the South by might of arms[71], but he also, looking
to British interests, saw his early duty, before war broke, in cautious
suggestions against forcible Northern action. Thus from January to
March, 1861, British effort and indirect advice were based on the hope
that British trade interests might escape the tribulations inevitable
from a civil conflict in America. Beyond that point there was no grasp
of the complications likely to arise in case of war, and no clear
formulation of British policy[72].
In fact up to the middle of March, 1861, both public and official
British opinion discounted armed conflict, or at least any determined
Northern effort to recover the South. Early British attitude was,
therefore, based on a misconception. As this became clear, public
opinion began to break from a united humanitarian pro-Northern sentiment
and to show, in some quarters, quite another face. Even as early as
January the _Economist_ expressed wonder that the Northern States had
not availed themselves gladly of the chance to "shake off such an
incubus, and to purify themselves of such a stain[73].
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